Monday, March 9, 2015

Because You Fail at Statistics

Can we talk about the word "random"?





Random, according to Dictionary.com, is defined as follows

adjective

1. proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern:
the random selection of numbers.

2. Statistics. of or characterizing a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.


Got that?

That is why it pisses me off so damn much when Howrse players say many game operations are random. For example?

The color of a horses's coat is not random. The odds are clearly given on each breed's respective page! NOT RANDOM.

Finding an Ageing Point upon waking a horse? NOT RANDOM. The chance is 1 in 6. I calculated this. You're welcome.

Finding a Divine in a Horn of Plenty or Titan's Challenge during a promotion. Again, NOT RANDOM. While the odds are never given, the chance is absolutely 100% not random.

There are predefined parameters the game uses to control these things. Just because you do not know the odds does not mean they are random. Very few things on Howrse are truly random.




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